A decade after the UK entered into a hurried public vote that split the nation and triggered chaos, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the political, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is imminent, and a group named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has taken place in academia but scarcely any government figures or activists seek to involve themselves even with the basics. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Each composes two pieces that strive for impartiality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and societal data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, duties, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they prefer unity but reject increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate arguments, he commented. "Somebody will win in this matter and the other side will eventually lose but each side has got important lessons to gain from the other's arguments."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, urged the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
